As the new year gets underway, I’d like to wish you and your loved ones a happy new year, filled with health, stability and peace of mind.
With 2025 now in the rearview mirror, this is a good moment to reflect on the trends that shaped Canada’s mortgage and housing markets, and to look ahead at what 2026 may bring.
2025 recap: some relief, but no return to normal
If 2024 marked the turning point for interest rates, 2025 was about gradual relief and adjustment.
The Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate four times in 2025, bringing it down from 3.25% to 2.25% by late October, where it held through year-end. Prime rates followed, providing gradual relief for variable-rate borrowers.
Inflation stayed close to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target for much of the year, easing pressure on everyday expenses and allowing interest rates to trend lower without reigniting price concerns. While economic growth remained uneven, Canada largely avoided a sharp downturn, supported by resilient employment and steady consumer spending.
Lower borrowing costs brought more buyers back into the housing market, particularly through the spring and summer. Data from the Canadian Real Estate Association showed national home sales trending higher compared with early 2025, while prices posted modest year-over-year gains. Affordability remained stretched in many regions, pointing to a market that was regaining balance rather than accelerating sharply.
Governments and regulators remained focused on housing supply and affordability throughout 2025. Key measures in Budget 2025 included the expansion of the GST rebate for new purpose-built rental housing and changes aimed at improving access to insured mortgages, both intended to support housing construction and ease affordability pressures over time.
Looking ahead to 2026: a steadier year, with fewer surprises
As 2026 gets underway, the outlook is measured but constructive.Most economists expect the Bank of Canada to remain on hold for much of the year, with limited room for further rate cuts unless economic conditions weaken meaningfully. Mortgage rates may drift modestly lower over time, but large declines are unlikely, pointing to a more stable rate environment than in recent years.
Housing activity is expected to remain steady rather than surge. Pent-up demand and gradual affordability improvements should support sales, but headwinds remain. According to Royal LePage, policy uncertainty, shifting immigration patterns and softness in parts of the condominium market could weigh on activity in some regions, while tight supply should continue to limit broad price declines.
As a result, price growth is expected to be modest and highly regional.
For many households, 2026 will be a year of decision-making, especially for those renewing mortgages that were taken out at much lower rates. Planning ahead and reviewing options early will be especially important.
Here to help you plan for the year ahead
Whether you’re thinking about buying, renewing or refinancing, or simply want a clearer picture of your options, I’m here to help.
A short conversation early in the year can often make a big difference later on. If you’d like to review your situation or talk through what 2026 could look like for you, feel free to reach out anytime.
Here’s to a steady and successful year ahead!.